Bitcoin's potential peak could have already been reached, according to Nadeau, who sees echoes of the 2021 cycle pattern.
In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, the trajectory of Bitcoin's ongoing cycle is a subject of intense interest. While the institution responsible for observing the behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders remains unnamed in recent search results, analysis from entities tracking on-chain indicators and market indicators paints a clear picture.
Reduced selling and steady accumulation by long-term holders (LTHs) are strongly influencing the stock market today trajectory, according to the Value-Days-Destroyed (VDD) chart, the MVRV Z-Score, and the Puell Multiple. LTHs have distributed BTC back into the market for the third time in the current cycle, with a significant 12.4% reduction in supply earlier this year (Q1 2025) potentially defining the first 'true' top.
In contrast, the spot market momentum is pushing the Relative Strength Index (RSI) into overbought territory. However, conviction is shallow due to flat volumes and weakening CVD, suggesting a cautious market. Participation from short-term holders (STH) remains low in the present cycle, and there was minimal evidence of new money entering the stock market today.
On-chain signals show BTC addresses trending toward cycle lows while transfer volumes rise, pointing to capital inflows without broader user growth. This trend is similar to the post-April 2021 phase, where a re-accumulation trend has returned. However, fees have declined, reflecting weak block space demand and muted speculative pressure.
The second top in November 2021 was relatively muted due to repositioning of existing holdings rather than new capital influx. With profitability metrics improving, investors are broadly in profit, but increasing profit-taking hints at potential demand exhaustion.
The current behavior of LTHs could define the trajectory of the ongoing cycle. However, options markets indicate increased risk of sharp reactions if volatility resurfaces. Options markets show open interest climbing, but volatility spreads narrowing and skew dropping sharply, indicating less hedging and greater complacency.
This analysis suggests that while the ongoing Bitcoin cycle continues to unfold, the behavior of long-term holders is a key factor to watch. Their steady accumulation and distribution patterns provide valuable insights into the potential trajectory of the stock market today. As always, it's essential for investors to stay informed and make informed decisions based on the latest data and analysis.
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