The 2025 Papal election: Who's in the running and what influences their decision?
Cardinal election statistics:
The upcoming papal election is shaping up to be a global spectacle, with 133 cardinals from 69 countries worldwide getting ready to cast their votes. Here's a rundown of who these cardinals are, what factors might sway their decision, and the rules governing the election.
Heart of the Vote: The Cardinal Electors
As per tradition, only cardinals under the age of 80 are eligible to participate in the conclave. This year, 135 cardinals meet the criteria, but due to health issues, two are unable to attend. The remaining 133 cardinals represent a diverse mix of continents, with 52 hailing from Europe, 23 from Asia, 17 from South or Central America, 17 from Africa, 20 from North America, and four from Oceania.
Global Reach: Countries Represented
The cardinal electors come from far and wide, representing 69 countries across five continents - a new record. This global representation reflects the Catholic Church's expansion across the world, particularly in Africa and Asia.
Averaging Out: The Age of Cardinal Electors
With an average age of 70 years and three months, the cardinal electors provide a blend of experience and fresh perspectives. The youngest cardinal is Ukraine's Mykola Bychok, archbishop of Melbourne, at 45, while the oldest is Carlos Osoro Sierra, a Spaniard who, at 79 years and 11 months, was almost too old to vote.
The Francis Factor: Pope Francis' Appointments
A large majority, 81.2 percent, of the cardinal electors were appointed by Pope Francis during his 12 years at the head of the Holy See. These 108 are taking part in their first conclave, potentially tilting the election in a progressive direction. Among the veterans, 20 were named by Benedict XVI and five by John Paul II.
Italian Dominance: A Fading Trend?
For centuries, both the papacy and the college of cardinals were dominated by Italians. However, as the church has gone global, their numbers have dwindled. Nevertheless, Italy still boasts the biggest national contribution, with 17 cardinals.
First-Timers: New Countries on the Map
Some 15 countries are represented for the first time in the conclave, with cardinals from Haiti, Cape Verde, Papua New Guinea, and South Sudan adding a fresh perspective.
Orders of Business: 18 Religious Orders
Within the Catholic Church, there are several religious orders, with 18 such movements having cardinals participating in the Sistine Chapel vote. Francis himself was a Jesuit, potentially impacting the election's outcome.
The Voting Process: Four Ballots Per Day
Voting takes place in the Sistine Chapel, where the cardinals gather to cast their ballots. If no clear winner emerges in the initial ballot, the cardinals will vote four times a day, twice in the morning and twice in the afternoon, until a majority emerges.
The Two-Thirds Majority: 89 Votes
The new pope will need a two-thirds majority, which means 89 cardinals must write his name on their secret ballot papers. If no majority emerges quickly, the conclave could potentially continue for weeks or months, though in practice, the previous two conclaves only lasted two days each.
Secret and Symbolic: The Burning of Ballots
The cardinals' ballots are burned in a stove to preserve the secrecy of the process and to act as a signal of progress to the faithful gathered outside the sealed chapel. Today, two stoves are used, connected to the same chimney. One burns the ballots, while the other burns a chemical compound to create either black smoke (no majority yet) or white (a new pope has been chosen).
The Mysterious Influence: Guidance from the Holy Spirit
Despite the various factors that may influence their decision, the cardinals believe they are guided by the Holy Spirit in their duty to elect the next pope.
The Unseen Factors: Enriching the Conclave
Several enriching aspects not directly stated in the article:
- Geographic Shifts: The current shift in international politics and the growth of Catholicism in Africa and Asia may influence the cardinals' choice. Pope Francis' efforts to make the College of Cardinals more inclusive by appointing many cardinals from the Global South could impact the election.
- Ideological Tensions: Tensions between progressive and traditional factions within the Church will play a role, with Pope Francis' progressive stances, such as approving the blessing of gay couples and allowing divorcees to receive communion, meeting resistance from more conservative cardinals.
- Political Influence: Even political figures like Donald Trump might indirectly influence the election through broader political shifts.
- Spiritual Guidance: The cardinals believe they are guided by the Holy Spirit in their decision-making. However, it is unclear to what extent this spiritual guidance may shape their votes in practice.
- The cardinal electors come from diverse continents, with Africa having 17 representatives, reflecting the Catholic Church's expansion in that continent.
- Among the cardinal electors, Sudan, represented for the first time, adds a fresh perspective, bringing the total number of countries represented to 69 across five continents.
- Influencing the election's outcome, 108 of the cardinal electors were appointed by Pope Francis, marking a significant profile of progressives among the electors.
- With an average age of 70 years and three months, the cardinal electors from all corners of the globe embody a blend of experience and fresh perspectives, poised to embark on the historic 2025 Papal election.
