Decline of a century-old driving expertise: Electronic vehicles anticipated to completely eliminate the conventional practice
The age of manual transmissions is waning as automobile manufacturers reduce their offerings of manual gearboxes, forecasting a future where manual gears will be a thing of the past when electric cars dominate the market.
In a recent market review, it was discovered that just 96 models currently available are manual, while 404 new cars are exclusively automatic. This means that manual transmissions now constitute less than a fifth of all new models, having originated from the 1891 Panhard et Levassor, widely recognized as the first vehicle with a manual transmission.
This trend will likely accelerate as the prohibition of new petrol and diesel vehicle sales in 2030 occurs, with car manufacturers limited to selling only hybrid and electric vehicles. Both hybrid and electric vehicles utilize automatic transmissions, effectively rendering manual gear changes obsolete in new cars.
Furthermore, young drivers appear to be adapting to this shift, with the proportion of auto-only driving tests rising. According to the DVSA, 23.4% of all practical driving tests in 2023/24 were conducted in automatics, up from just 6.9% a decade earlier. Despite the belief that automatic cars are easier to drive, pass rates for auto-only tests are statistically lower.
The growing preference for automatic-only driving tests mirrors the declining availability of new cars with manual transmissions in recent years, as automatics become increasingly popular. The CarGurus study revealed a 57% decrease in the choice of new models with manual gearboxes compared to 2015, at which rate automatics are projected to be "lost forever" in new motors by 2037.
Manufacturers such as Land Rover, Mini, Mercedes-Benz, and Volvo no longer offer any new cars with manual transmissions. Kia, Audi, Renault, and Peugeot are among those with the fewest manual options, followed closely by Lexus, Porsche, and Tesla, which are exclusively electric vehicle manufacturers.
Brands continue to experiment with simulated gearboxes, providing an automatic system that feels like a manual to maintain driver engagement. It remains to be seen if these innovations can revive manual gearboxes, as electric vehicles dominate the market, relegating the manual transmission to a niche product, largely found in sports or enthusiast vehicles.
- The decrease in manual transmission cars on the market has led to an increase in demand for industry analysis, as finance experts seek to predict the future of the automotive industry.
- As the transportation sector evolves, and the industry moves towards electric vehicles, technology plays a crucial role in shaping the lifestyle of car users, particularly in their interaction with automotive products.
- The decline in manual transmissions can be seen not only in new car offerings but also in driver training, as driving tests are increasingly moving towards automatic-only options, reflecting the changing landscape of the automotive sector.
- With manufacturers like Land Rover, Mini, Mercedes-Benz, and Volvo exclusively offering automatic or electric cars, the future of manual transmissions seems bleak, leaving them as a niche preference in the lifestyle of car enthusiasts and sports vehicle markets.
