Expanding Past the Second Oceanic Island Line: The Need for Risk Reduction in the Pacific Region
Oceania, spanning more than three hundred thousand square miles, is a strategically important region that sits astride some of the world's most important sea lanes and beneath vital air corridors, making it a pivotal frontline in the current strategic competition between the United States and China.
China has been expanding its influence in the region over the past two decades, executing a comprehensive strategy that includes economic incentives, diplomatic outreach, elite capture, media influence, and control of critical infrastructure such as ports, airports, undersea cables, and telecommunications networks. Beijing-backed companies often hold monopolistic control over these sectors in island nations, creating strategic vulnerabilities.
China's influence extends into security engagements through agreements with countries like the Solomon Islands, Kiribati, Vanuatu, and the Cook Islands, involving naval access, maritime surveillance, police training, and cybersecurity cooperation. These security pacts, sometimes negotiated with limited transparency, have raised concerns among traditional Western partners like the US and Australia due to fears of a permanent Chinese military presence encroaching on a historically Western-dominated region.
The United States, with its allies and partners, recognizes the strategic importance of Oceania and has been advocating for a response within a broader Indo-Pacific strategy. The aim is to counterbalance China’s growing military and geoeconomic power by reinforcing alliances with regional partners including India, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand.
The U.S. strategy in Oceania involves competitive engagement, backed by credible alternatives and sustained presence. This includes a whole-of-government approach, integrated with regional mechanisms like the Pacific Islands Forum, Melanesian Spearhead Group, and initiatives that support scenario planning, local resilience, and food and medical strategic reserves. The U.S. can also provide targeted support through electoral assistance, anticorruption programming, and civil society strengthening.
The more resources China has to hold in Oceania, the less they can reach. The uncontested environment in Oceania is changing, and it's time to impose costs on China, compelling them to expend resources they previously didn't need to spend. The window to mitigate strategic risk in Oceania is closing fast.
Climate change, including rising sea levels and more intense cyclones and droughts, disproportionately affects these nations. A whole-of-government approach, including civil society, youth networks, and indigenous leaders as primary stakeholders, is essential to address these challenges and ensure a stable Indo-Pacific security order.
Political recognition of Taiwan remains a flashpoint in the geopolitical competition between China, the United States, and regional partners. The U.S., with its allies and partners, can offer another path, one rooted in respect, transparency, and long-term partnership.
[1] "China's Belt and Road Initiative in Oceania: A Double-Edged Sword," Asia Pacific Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, 2020. [2] "China's Influence in the Pacific: Opportunities and Challenges," Lowy Institute, 2019. [3] "China's Bid for a Pacific Security Pact," The Diplomat, 2020. [4] "U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy Report," U.S. Department of State, 2019.
- To counteract China's influence in Oceania, the United States has been implementing a cybersecurity strategy that strengthens military training in the region, ensuring secure communications and protecting critical infrastructure from potential cyber threats.
- As climate change poses serious environmental challenges to Oceania, the integration of environmental-science and technology platforms becomes paramount to devise effective strategies for climate adaptation and mitigation, encompassing national security and military training.
- To maintain a balance of power, military alliances should incorporate robust cybersecurity defense mechanisms, considering the growing importance of cyber warfare in contemporary conflict landscapes.
- In the picture of escalating strategic competition, military training programs must evolve to incorporate the latest advancements in cybersecurity and technology to ensure national security and provide an effective defense against potential cyberattacks.
- The United States recognizes the potential for collaboration between military training, cybersecurity, environmental-science, and technological innovation to address the diversifying challenges posed by China's strategic influence in Oceania and the Indo-Pacific region as a whole.
- As climate change further exacerbates security threats, a collective approach involving all sectors of society – from military to science and technology to environmental-science – is necessary to combat rising risks and maintain a secure and stable Indo-Pacific.
