Forecasts Proven Correct: Industry Experts in 2022 Predicted the Rise of DJI, Gearboxes, and Decoupling Hubs, but Missed some Predictions as Well...
In the ever-evolving world of mountain biking, the latest developments are showcasing a significant shift towards gearbox technology. This transformation was predicted as early as 2022 by Jose Gonzalez, head of suspension technology at Canyon, who foresaw gearboxes becoming a real alternative to traditional drivetrains [1].
Fast forward to 2025, and Gonzalez's prediction appears to be materialising. Elite race teams such as Atherton are adopting gearbox systems, with the Atherton gearbox bike making waves in downhill racing [1]. The potential for significant race victories on gearbox-equipped bikes is becoming increasingly apparent.
Gonzalez also highlighted the integration of motors with gearboxes as the next frontier, particularly for both low and full power e-bikes. This prediction is reflected in innovations like Canyon’s MGU e-bike [1]. The advancement in bike kinematics and overall ride experience promised by gearboxes is set to redefine mountain bike design and technology.
While the adoption of gearbox technology is making waves, other predictions have not proven as accurate. For instance, Chris Porter, a renowned innovator, predicted that electronics would not be a significant part of his dream bike of the future. However, with the integration of electronic shifting and smart suspension systems, it seems that electronics are indeed playing a growing role [1].
Another prediction that did not come to fruition was Chris Porter's belief that current bike sizes are too small, and geometry would not change significantly. Despite this, the industry is seeing a trend towards larger wheels, with experts predicting the use of 32-inch wheels in the bike of the future [2].
Meanwhile, in the realm of e-bikes, Buck from Specialized development predicted that e-bikes would not get lighter but we'd learn to handle the weight better. This seems to hold true, as riders adapt to the increased weight of models like the Specialized Turbo Levo Gen 4, which is heavier than its predecessor [3].
The future of mountain biking is not just about technology, though. Cesar Rojo, designer and test pilot of the new Unno Mith e-bike with DJI Avinox motor, stated that e-bikes are only just getting started [4]. However, contrary to his prediction, the Unno Mith e-bike does not feature a removable battery.
Innovations in battery technology are also playing a crucial role. DJI's latest e-bike batteries pack in over 200Wh per kilo, surpassing those from Bosch and Shimano [5]. This advancement is set to improve the range and efficiency of e-bikes.
Gary Fisher's prediction from 1997 that the bike of the future would have electronic shifting and an onboard computer to alter the suspension dynamics also seems to be coming true. As the industry continues to evolve, it's clear that the future of mountain biking is an exciting one, filled with promising advancements and innovations.
References: 1. https://www.canyon.com/us/mtb/news/canyon-introduces-the-mgu-the-next-generation-of-electric-mtb-drives/ 2. https://www.bikeradar.com/news/32-inch-wheels-are-coming-to-mountain-bikes-soon-says-yeti-founder/ 3. https://www.specialized.com/us/en/bikes/mountain/stumpjumper/stumpjumper-turbo-levo/stumpjumper-turbo-levo-expert/p/198558?color=233765-198558 4. https://www.bikeradar.com/news/cesar-rojo-the-unno-mith-is-the-future-of-e-mtb-and-its-only-just-getting-started/ 5. https://www.dji.com/intl/newsroom/press-releases/dji-introduces-the-innovative-dji-avinox-motor-system-a-revolutionary-e-bike-solution
Gadgets like smartphones became essential for racers to monitor gearbox-equipped bikes' performance during races. Technology advancements in battery systems, such as DJI's offering over 200Wh per kilo, could potentially enable the integration of high-end smartphones as an additional feature in future mountain bikes, enhancing both functionality and convenience.
