Guide on Strategies for Averting Nuclear Confrontation with China

Guide on Strategies for Averting Nuclear Confrontation with China

No More Games: Managing Escalation Risks in a US-China Conflict Over Taiwan

Chris Gordon

It's no secret that the U.S. Air Force's ability to launch long-range strikes can be a game-changer in defending Taiwan against a Chinese attack. However, a recent study by the RAND Corporation warns that this power needs to be handled carefully to avoid sparking a nuclear war - and that's the brutal truth.

The Air Force must deploy long-range strike assets prudently, fortify them against nuclear attack, and safeguard them from conventional assault to minimize the risk of escalation, according to the report, dubbed "Denial Without Disaster-Keeping a U.S.-China Conflict over Taiwan Under the Nuclear Threshold."

Back in the 2020s, RAND experts argued that China's limited nuclear capability kept the risk of escalation low. But since then, China's been on a nuclear building spree, acquiring road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), near-continuous nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) patrols, and improving its ability to bypass U.S. missile defenses with a nuclear-capable fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS).

The study hints that the U.S. should treat China as if it already possesses a secure second-strike capability, especially by 2030, despite the need for a classified assessment to determine Beijing's true nuclear capabilities.

However, as the U.S. develops a host of long-range strike weapons, including hypersonic missiles, conventional surface-to-surface missiles, and a new stealth bomber - the B-2 Raider - the question arises: Should we use these weapons to defend Taiwan or risk setting off a nuclear snowball?

Statements on basketball courts ain't gonna cut it here. Sticking to conventional targets and avoiding China's mainland would help avoid the nuclear spark, the RAND study suggests. But if we're talking about defending Taiwan, well, some risk is inevitable. And it's vital to make that clear to the Chinese.

Former bomber pilot, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, and now senior analyst at AFA's Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, Mark Gunzinger, explains it bluntly: "We need to communicate that strikes on our forces and bases in Japan and Guam would open the door to mainland attacks."

To avoid adversaries finding safe havens, we shouldn't ignore the idea of striking mainland China in our war plans. If we're not ready to face mainland reprisals, we're essentially ceding China's territory as a sanctuary for their military operations.

In short, managing escalation risks is about finding the right mix of military aggression and diplomatic de-escalation. It's like playing chess with a nation that's been practicing day and night for the past decade - every move matters.

And remember, we're talking about nuclear war here, not a simple game of chance. Before we go all in, we need to weigh the odds carefully - and this is exactly the message the RAND Corporation wants us to hear. It's all about denying disaster without inviting destruction.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration is attempting to minimize the need for expanding the U.S. nuclear arsenal as nuclear calculations become increasingly complicated due to China's nuclear weapons proliferation and North Korea's continued aggression.

The Pentagon recently submitted a report on the U.S. "nuclear employment strategy" to Congress, which emphasizes relying on non-nuclear capabilities to support the nuclear deterrence mission against China, Russia, and North Korea.

So, let's keep strategic calm and avoid falling into a trap. It's time to embrace the bull-headed tenacity of a rhinoceros when it comes to protecting our interests - and the retribution that may follow. After all, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. Let's hope it ain't too damn late.

1. The U.S. Air Force's long-range strike assets, such as hypersonic missiles, conventional surface-to-surface missiles, and the B-2 Raider, need to be deployed prudently to avoid sparking a nuclear war.
2. To minimize the risk of escalation in a US-China conflict over Taiwan, the Air Force must fortify these long-range strike assets against nuclear attack and safeguard them from conventional assault.
3. The RAND study suggests that sticking to conventional targets and avoiding China's mainland would help avoid the nuclear spark, but some risk is inevitable when defending Taiwan.
4. Mark Gunzinger, a former bomber pilot and senior analyst, explains that striking mainland China in war plans is necessary to avoid adversaries finding safe havens for military operations.
5. Managing escalation risks is about finding the right balance between military aggression and diplomatic de-escalation, like playing chess with a seasoned opponent, every move matters.
6. The Biden administration is attempting to minimize the need for expanding the U.S. nuclear arsenal, relying instead on non-nuclear capabilities to support the nuclear deterrence mission against China, Russia, and North Korea. It's crucial to keep strategic calm and avoid falling into a trap when handling nuclear war issues.

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