IEA Predicts Renewable Energy Boom to 2030, Led by Solar
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its annual 'Renewables' report, offering insights into the future of renewable energy. It predicts a significant growth, with the global capacity doubling to around 4,600 GW by 2030. However, the IEA also notes that the promise of COP28 to triple the capacity may not be fully realized, with the capacity expected to be about 2.6 times larger in 2030 than in 2022.
The growth will be largely driven by solar energy, which is expected to contribute to 80% of the increase. Europe is projected to play a significant role, with a massive increase in renewable energy investments, particularly in solar and wind, supported by policies like the European Green Deal. The EU aims to more than double its renewable energy capacity by 2030. Long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) have been crucial in this growth within the EU.
The IEA now expects a weaker growth by 2030 compared to its 2024 projection, mainly due to political changes in the US and China. However, in an accelerated scenario, the global capacity could reach 2.8 times the 2022 level by 2030, but this requires minimizing political uncertainties and other changes. The IEA expects another record year for renewable energy growth in 2025, with an increase of over 750 GW in the main scenario and 840 GW in the accelerated scenario.
Currently, over 600 GW of standalone battery storage systems and another 125 GW of hybrid systems are waiting for connection worldwide. The projection for the Middle East and North Africa has been revised upwards by 25 percent, driven by solar energy growth in Saudi Arabia. Geothermal capacity is also expected to reach a historic high in 2030, tripling from 2024 levels.
The IEA's report highlights the significant growth expected in renewable energy, with solar energy leading the way. While the EU is poised for a major increase, political uncertainties may slow global growth. Despite this, the future of renewable energy remains promising, with record growth expected in the coming years and significant advancements in storage technologies.
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