Predicted Increase of Bitcoin by 10 Times Before Equaling Gold, According to Bitwise CIO
Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, has a long way to go before it catches up to gold in terms of market capitalisation. As it stands, Bitcoin's market cap is currently around $2.34 trillion, just over 10% of gold's market size. However, experts believe that Bitcoin has significant growth potential if it achieves parity with gold.
Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Bitwise, believes that Bitcoin is still undervalued and early in its adoption cycle. Hougan argues that the cryptocurrency still has plenty of upside due to the potential for large inflows from institutions. In his view, Bitcoin won't be considered mature until it matches gold's market cap, which would move Bitcoin into the seven-figure range per coin.
Hougan sees gold as the closest benchmark for value storage for Bitcoin. If Bitcoin were to match gold’s $23 trillion market capitalization fully, its price would need to increase roughly tenfold from current levels to around $1.16–1.17 million per BTC. This assumes Bitcoin's fixed supply cap of 21 million coins.
The launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has already shown how fresh demand can influence price. Institutional adoption continues to expand, with major holders adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets and more countries and businesses accepting BTC as a form of payment or legal tender, increasing its liquidity and utility as a digital store of value.
Unlike gold’s thousands of years as a store of value, Bitcoin is just over a decade old but offers unique advantages such as scarcity, verifiability, censorship resistance, programmability, and growing global ownership. Bitcoin remains more volatile than gold, reflecting its evolving market and risk profile, but institutional interest is progressively legitimising it as “digital gold.”
In summary, if Bitcoin achieves institutional adoption at scale and garners investor confidence comparable to gold’s role as a store of value, its price could increase roughly tenfold, reflecting a market cap near gold’s $23 trillion level. This assumes continued demand growth, supply constraints via halving, and broader adoption, highlighting Bitcoin’s substantial growth opportunity relative to current valuations.
[1] Data from various sources, including CoinMarketCap and World Gold Council. [2] Hougan, M. (2021). Interview with CNBC. [3] Data from the Bitcoin blockchain and historical market data. [4] Data from Chainalysis and various news outlets. [5] Data from various market analysis reports and news articles.
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