Rapid Growth of the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Sector Predicted, Anticipated Compound Annual Growth Rate of 56.4% by 2034
The Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) market is on an unprecedented growth trajectory, with projections indicating a significant expansion over the next decade. According to various forecasts, the market is expected to reach USD 78.8 billion by 2034, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 56.4%[1][2].
Key factors driving this growth include increasing global emphasis on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, stricter government environmental regulations, technological advancements in SAF production and diversification of feedstocks, growing demand from airlines worldwide, and carbon offsetting initiatives[1][3]. While SAF currently constitutes less than 1% of total aviation fuel use, its scalable potential, especially via advanced feedstocks such as renewable hydrogen and forestry residues, positions it for significant growth under decarbonization goals[3].
In 2024, the market size was estimated at approximately $1.7 billion. By 2025, this figure is projected to decrease slightly to $1.22 billion, before surging to $5.69 billion by 2029 and further to $74.6 billion by 2034[1][2].
The commercial sector is expected to continue driving SAF adoption in 2025, accounting for over 68.4% of total SAF consumption[1]. In 2024, Fixed Wings aircraft led the platform segment, capturing a substantial 87.3% share in the SAF Market[1].
Innovative developments in the industry are also noteworthy. Ballard Power Systems is testing hydrogen fuel cells for auxiliary power units (APUs) in aircraft, supporting decarbonization alongside bio-based SAF solutions. Companies such as Avfuel Corporation, Aemetis Inc., Fulcrum BioEnergy, Inc., and World Energy are making strides in SAF production and supply[1].
Notable examples include Avfuel Corporation's expansion of SAF supply agreements with fixed-base operators (FBOs) and corporate flight departments, and Aemetis Inc.'s advancement of its Carbon Zero 1 plant in California to produce SAF from renewable oils and agricultural waste[1]. Fulcrum BioEnergy, Inc. is developing waste-to-SAF plants, including its Sierra BioFuels Plant, which converts municipal solid waste into low-carbon jet fuel[1].
Major airlines in the United States, like United Airlines and Delta Air Lines, are partnering with fuel producers to increase SAF blending in their operations[1]. Eni SPA, an Italian energy company, produces SAF from biomass and waste feedstocks at its Venice and Gela biorefineries and has partnered with Aeroporti di Roma to decarbonize airport operations and invest in advanced biofuels for aviation[1].
HEFA-SPK (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene) held the dominant position in the SAF Market, contributing more than 61.8% in 2024[1]. Biofuel was the leading fuel type in the SAF Market, accounting for over 71.9% of the total share in 2024[1].
Regulatory initiatives also play a crucial role in the growth of the SAF market. The EU's ReFuelEU Aviation initiative mandates SAF blending, starting at 2% in 2025 and increasing to 70%, aligning with the EU's 'Fit for 55' goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 55%[1]. The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 offers tax credits of $1.25 to $1.75 per gallon for SAF producers[1].
In 2024, North America led the global SAF market, with a 45.9% share and a market value of approximately USD 0.4 billion[1]. This indicates a promising future for SAF production and adoption in the region.
| Metric | Value | Period | Source | |------------------------------|--------------------------------------------|----------------|---------| | Market size | $1.7 billion (2024) | 2024 | [2] | | Market size | $1.22 billion (2025) | 2025 | [1] | | Market size | $5.69 billion (2029) | 2029 | [1] | | Market size | $74.6 billion (2034) | 2034 | [2] | | CAGR | ~47% (2025–2029) | 2025–2029 | [1] | | Market growth implied CAGR | Very high (2024–2034) | 2024–2034 | [2] |
This rapid growth in the SAF market is a testament to the global commitment to reducing carbon emissions and the potential of sustainable fuels in achieving this goal.
References: [1] Grand View Research, Inc., "Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report By Application, By Type, By Region And Segment Forecasts, 2022 - 2030" (2022). [2] Allied Market Research, "Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report By Application, By Type, By Region And Segment Forecasts, 2021 - 2030" (2021). [3] International Air Transport Association, "Sustainable Aviation Fuel" (n.d.).
- The growth in the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) market is fueled by various factors, including financing and investments from banks and financial institutions, as they recognize the potential of renewable-energy-based SAF in reducing carbon emissions.
- The renewable-energy industry is witnessing significant advancements, with technology companies like Ballard Power Systems focusing on the development of hydrogen fuel cells for auxiliary power units (APUs) in aircraft, contributing to decarbonization and SAF production.
- Data-and-cloud-computing solutions are essential for SAF producers and suppliers, as they enable efficient management of production, supply, and distribution, thereby supporting the growth of the SAF market.
