Russia intends to manufacture approximately 79,000 Shahed drones by the year 2025, according to Ukraine's intelligence.
Russia is building a drone industrial base to produce Shahed-type loitering munitions on a large scale, with plans to produce up to 79,000 of these vehicles in 2025. This significant increase is intended to support sustained large-scale drone attacks on Ukraine.
The main assembly facility for these drones is located in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in the Republic of Tatarstan. This plant is central to Russia’s plan to ramp up production, with production lines set up in the cities of Izhevsk and Yelabuga as well.
In an effort to reduce reliance on foreign components, Russia is replacing imported parts with domestically manufactured ones. The airframe and internal combustion engine for these drones are already being produced domestically, while the navigation system remains largely Russian except for some chips and microelectronics sourced externally.
This strategy aligns with Russia's broader push for drone self-sufficiency amid an intense drone warfare environment in Ukraine. The Russian Federation is aiming for self-sufficiency in producing Shahed-type unmanned aerial vehicles, a move that allows for both kinetic (long-range) and non-kinetic (sabotage, production disruption) strikes.
Ukraine's military intelligence is using NATO standards for defining targets and tasking strikes, and ongoing efforts are being made to disrupt this production by targeting the Alabuga facility. Long-range strikes deep into Russia are facilitating this objective.
The Russians are attempting to replace all imported components in their production process to avoid the effects of electronic warfare systems. Antennas for these drones are of the Kometa type, designed to withstand such systems.
Approximately 40,000 of these vehicles will be Geran-2 type, while 34,000 will be other types, including Gerbera. Additionally, 5,700 will be Garpiya-1 type.
This adaptation reflects Russia's efforts to scale up drone manufacturing capacity while mitigating vulnerabilities related to supply chain disruptions of foreign parts. The production of drone gliders and internal combustion engines domestically, and the indigenization of navigation systems, are key aspects of this strategy.
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