Solar Industry Sees Major Price Surge After Years of Lows
The solar industry has experienced a significant shift in pricing trends, with a 48% increase in the FOB price of TOPCon modules since September 2025. This change follows a period of historic lows in module prices, which reached US$0.07-0.09/W in 2024 and early 2025.
The price surge can be attributed to market consolidation and government policies. Chinese polysilicon manufacturers have reduced utilisation rates by 55-70% under 'voluntary-compulsory' guidelines. Leading solar module manufacturers have also seen operating rates fall by up to 60% by mid-2025. Notably, China's top four solar manufacturers announced losses of US$1.54 billion in the first half of 2025 due to sustained price drops.
In response to these challenges, a group of leading Chinese polysilicon producers planned to buy up and shut down around one third of the country's polysilicon production capacity. Companies like Tongwei, Daqo New Energy, and GCL-Poly Energy have announced plans to shut down half of their polysilicon and solar module production capacity in China. These moves, along with new government policies and the cancellation of a 13% VAT rebate on solar module and storage system exports, will lead to approximately 9% price increases in Q4 2025.
While these changes may lead to short-term cost increases for developers due to the lack of alternative supply, industry experts believe that the long-term health of the solar and storage sector will benefit from the shift in pricing. The market consolidation and production cuts are expected to stabilise prices and ensure sustainable growth for the industry.
