Stock prices of ASML drop due to uncertainty caused by US tariff disputes, alarming investors
Amidst a robust Q2 2025 performance, ASML, a leading global supplier of advanced chipmaking equipment, has expressed concerns over the potential impact of US tariffs on its growth and revenue in 2026. The Dutch company reported net sales of €7.7 billion and net income of €2.3 billion for Q2 2025, marking a 15% increase in revenue compared to 2024[1]. However, ASML cannot confirm growth in 2026 due to escalating macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the threat of new US tariffs on semiconductor equipment[2][4].
ASML is the exclusive global supplier of EUV lithography machines, essential for producing cutting-edge semiconductors widely used in AI accelerators and data-center chips[2]. The potential imposition of tariffs by the US could increase costs, disrupt supply chains, and dampen demand for ASML’s highly specialized equipment, particularly in sensitive geopolitical environments.
The uncertainty surrounding US tariffs has led to a significant drop in ASML's shares, with a fall of over 11% after the outlook was announced, wiping out about $30 billion in market value[2]. Analysts like Jefferies expect a possible 2% decline in 2026 revenue, versus consensus 7% growth, citing softening DRAM demand and tariff risks as factors[4].
ASML's backlog and bookings remain strong in mid-2025, but the inability to confirm growth in 2026 signals a market increasingly cautious about the US-China tech tensions and trade restrictions affecting ASML's sales pipeline[2][3]. The company's leadership and market analysts signal that the growth trajectory beyond 2025 depends heavily on how such tariffs and macroeconomic conditions evolve, making 2026 a clouded year for ASML’s revenue and expansion outlook[2][3][4].
The complex tariff situation for ASML includes potential tariffs on direct sales, parts sent for manufacturing in America, replacement parts for servicing, and parts or modules coming from the US[3]. The easing of US chip controls on exports to China could be a positive development for chip demand, according to CFO Roger Dassen[3].
Despite the uncertainties, ASML continues to see AI as a significant driver of growth for both logic and memory chips, and customers are investing in more capacity for the most advanced production nodes[3]. The company also expects at least 25% of its revenue to come from China in the near future[3].
In conclusion, the US tariff policy has injected significant uncertainty into ASML's 2026 growth prospects, with tangible impacts on market valuation and forecasts. The company’s leadership and market analysts signal that the growth trajectory beyond 2025 depends heavily on how such tariffs and macroeconomic conditions evolve, making 2026 a clouded year for ASML’s revenue and expansion outlook.
Sources: [1] ASML Q2 2025 Financial Results: https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2025/asml-reports-q2-2025-results [2] ASML Warns of Uncertainty Over US Tariffs: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/asml-warns-uncertainty-over-us-tariffs-2025-08-02/ [3] ASML Faces Complex Tariff Situation: https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/asml-faces-complex-tariff-situation-as-us-china-tech-tensions-escalate [4] Jefferies Downgrades ASML Over Tariff Worries: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/jefferies-downgrades-asml-over-tariff-worries-2025-08-02
The potential US tariffs on semiconductor equipment pose a threat to ASML's growth and revenue in 2026, as they could increase costs, disrupt supply chains, and dampen demand for ASML's highly specialized equipment.
Moreover, the uncertainty surrounding US tariffs has led to a significant drop in ASML's shares, with a fall of over 11% after the outlook was announced, affecting the company's market valuation and growth trajectory beyond 2025.
