Weekly Update on Ridesharing: Data from Tesla, Insurance Premiums, and Passenger Safety Remain Key Issues
In the world of autonomous vehicle technology, Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system has been a much-anticipated development. However, recent reports suggest a period of stagnation and increased scrutiny regarding the transparency of its performance data and forward-looking claims.
Since the release of FSD version 13 in December 2024, there has been little reported improvement in the performance of the system in customer vehicles. CEO Elon Musk had previously claimed that v13 would result in a "5 to 6x increase in miles between disengagements" compared to v12.5, but according to crowdsourced data—which Musk himself has previously referenced as indicative of internal results—the real improvement was closer to 2x, not the projected 5-6x.
Moreover, only Tesla vehicles with the newer Hardware 4 (HW4) are receiving the latest FSD updates. Older HW3 vehicles are still on version 12, with Musk stating that HW3 will not support unsupervised self-driving as originally promised. There are no current plans to retroactively enable this capability for HW3 owners.
The shift in focus towards a robotaxi pilot program in Austin, Texas, may have diverted resources from further FSD improvements for customer vehicles.
Internationally, Tesla is actively expanding FSD testing in Europe, with recent official testing launches in Spain, joining previous launches in Italy, France, the Netherlands, and Germany. However, regulatory hurdles in the European Union remain significant, and the official launch of FSD (Supervised) across the EU is still pending.
Concerns about data transparency have also been raised. Tesla has not released official data on disengagement rates (when the system requires human intervention), relying instead on crowdsourced data as a proxy. This has introduced questions about the accuracy and transparency of claims regarding system performance.
Elon Musk's history of making optimistic predictions about the timeline for achieving full autonomy has also come under scrutiny. In a recent legal context, a lawsuit alleging securities fraud for misleading statements about autonomous vehicle timelines was dismissed, with the court ruling Musk’s claims as “corporate puffery”—vague corporate optimism rather than concrete promises.
Despite these challenges, Tesla has announced plans for a first-ever autonomous delivery of a Model Y directly from the factory to a customer’s home, scheduled for late June 2025 in Austin. The feasibility and scalability of this feature, as well as its broader implications for FSD performance, remain to be demonstrated.
Meanwhile, in a separate development, the proposal for "Sami's Law" comes in response to the death of Samantha Josephson in 2019, who mistook a "fake" Uber driver's car for her ride and was kidnapped and murdered. The law, which is being supported by various states, would require ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft to provide a barcode or machine-readable code on the outside of their vehicles to minimize the risk of passengers getting into the wrong car.
In the realm of insurance, Uber is leading a coalition to lower insurance costs, while Citizens for Affordable Rates is supporting a city legislation to reduce the minimum liability coverage for taxi and ride-share drivers from $200,000 to $50,000.
These developments underscore the complex and evolving landscape of the autonomous vehicle industry, where excitement and skepticism coexist, and where the pursuit of technological advancements is balanced against concerns about safety, transparency, and fairness.
The finance sector is closely monitoring Tesla's autonomous vehicle technology, particularly the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, due to concerns about the transparency of performance data and forward-looking claims. For instance, while the CEO Elon Musk had claimed a significant improvement with FSD version 13, actual performance data shows a less impressive increase.
In the automotive industry, Tesla's focus on a robotaxi pilot program in Austin and the lack of FSD improvements for customer vehicles may be impacting the technology's development. Simultaneously, in the realm of transportation, a proposed law, "Sami's Law," aims to enhance the safety of ride-hailing services, echoing industry-wide efforts towards safety and transparency.
